TEHRAN – Back in November, when Israel was sending death threats to President Bashar al-Assad, it was probably hoping, in its best-case scenario, to sever Syria's ties with Lebanon's Hezbollah.

It likely wasn't thinking that it would be able to occupy new areas in the Arab country, station troops close to Damascus, bomb the nation every day, and get rid of 90% of Syrian military infrastructure, even if Assad decided to turn completely into the West's orbit. However, what Israeli politicians couldn't even imagine requesting from Assad was given to them in a heartbeat by the new de facto rulers of Syria under the infamous Daesh and al-Qaeda affiliate, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani.

In the post-Assad Syria that's only lasted for a month, Israel has conducted 1200 rounds of airstrikes across the country, advanced to within 16 miles of the capital, and announced that it would be doubling the number of illegal settlements in the Syrian Golan Heights it occupied in 1967. Benjamin Netanyahu personally stepped foot in a part of Syria no Israeli leader had ever reached before, and announced that the new territories the regime has occupied will stay that way indefinitely.

Al-Jolani and his Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) officials have not yet taken action, nor have they properly addressed Israel's unprecedented aggressions in their comments. When he was pressured to speak on the matter before a crowd of his followers a few days after Assad's fall, Al-Jolani stated his country was "not ready" for a new war. Though he has not clarified what constitutes war, beyond the experience of daily bombings and loss of territory, it would be overly simplistic to assume the HTS leader made those remarks because he is a naive terrorist that knows no better. He led a government in Syria's Idlib for eight years despite consistent protests demanding his departure. Al-Jolani is hoping to gain something by bowing down to Isreal, and that thing can be traced in interviews he has recently granted to Western and Arab media.

"Syrians, the victims," al-Jolani explained to foreign journalists at the Syrian government headquarters last month, dressed in a suit and white shirt, "are being punished with sanctions for the acts of our former executioner." He further stated, "My personal sanctions and terrorist listing are insignificant. The focus should be on lifting all sanctions on Syria.”

Since then, the HTS leader has held meetings with a diverse array of regional and international figures. American diplomats, numerous Arab dignitaries, and the foreign ministers of Turkey, Germany, and France have all told al-Jolani how happy they are that Assad is gone. Al-Jolani, in turn, used these occasions to repeat his call for sanctions against Syria to be lifted.

But will the anti-Syria sanctions be removed now that al-Jolani has gone far and beyond to appease Israel and the West? The Tehran Times understands that will not be the case. A U.S. government announcement published by Reuters on Monday supports our assertion.

According to the report, the U.S. is planning to ease restrictions on the provision of "humanitarian aid", while maintaining the sanctions it imposed on Assad against the new government. This is despite assertions by American officials that humanitarian goods were never targeted by sanctions. Consequently, the effectiveness of this move in alleviating the daily hardships of the Syrian population remains unclear. The case of countries like Iran shows that as long as sanctions are in place, entities are unwilling to engage with the targeted country, even when dealing in essential goods like food and medicine.

What lessons does Syria have for Iran?

While Iran and Syria are vastly different nations, they face a similar set of critical challenges, notably the impact of Western sanctions. Though limited in number, these shared challenges are threatening to both countries.

Sanctions, a primary tool employed by the West, are designed to exert control over other nations' internal affairs and regional policies. These economic measures often cripple economies, create shortages of essential goods, and in some cases make daily life unbearable.

In Syria, the effects are stark. Across the country, people endure long queues for food, suffer from severely limited access to electricity and clean water, face low salaries, and struggle with soaring unemployment.

The situation in Iran, while not as dire as in Syria, is also marked by growing economic hardship caused by years of Western sanctions. The purchasing power of Iranian families has diminished, with many households who used to be able to make ends meet on just one salary now relying on multiple ones. While energy prices remain relatively stable due to heavy government subsidies, families struggle with increased costs of housing and groceries.

Syria, under President Assad, had demonstrated remarkable resilience for a time. However, over the past two years, a shift in his approach became apparent. As Syria was welcomed back into the Arab League, Western-aligned nations offered him enticing promises. Reports indicate that Emirati officials suggested the U.S. would lift sanctions if he distanced himself from Iran.

Combined with constant death threats from Israel and the loss of prominent Resistance figures in the past 15 months, Assad appears to have been swayed from his path of resistance. He began to believe he could secure a deal with the West by making non-threatening concessions, such as distancing himself from Iran and the Axis of Resistance. This shift also included a rejection of advice from Iranian and other allies who urged him to enact reforms and engage in dialogue with the opposition. This shift, or even the appearance of it, may have contributed to his downfall on December 8, 2024.

Iran, too, has exhibited considerable resilience for over four decades. A period of consideration for making concessions emerged in the 2010s, culminating in the 2015 nuclear deal, wherein Iran agreed to curtail its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. The U.S., however, abandoned the agreement, demanding further concessions. Today, some within Iran advocate for more concessions, including abandoning nuclear aspirations, severing ties with Resistance groups, and relinquishing its missile program. 

They believe such actions will lead to the lifting of sanctions. However, the experience of al-Jolani, demonstrates that such a belief is erroneous.

Al-Jolani has made every conceivable concession to the West and Israel in the past month. There is nothing he has not done for Washington and Tel Aviv. Yet, sanctions remain. Why? Because the West and Israel are not seeking a deal; they aim to cripple. Once a nation concedes to all their demands, the negotiating table is the last location it will encounter them.